Newt/Romney a lock on Iowa? Don't bet on it

Image: http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2011/09/08/am-the-republican-debate-social-security-and-minimum-wage/

As we get closer to the Iowa Caucuses Jan. 3, most folks are laser-focused on the slug fest that is Newt/Romney. I blame the political chatteratti for that. They conveniently forget there are a few other contenders in the race. The race could go down as predicted by most polls, showing Mitt Romney's support crashing and Newt Gingrich's surging from Iowa to Florida. But then again, being the strange and volatile season it is, other weirdness could ensue.
Take Ron Paul. His rising poll numbers in Iowa now have him in second place. His base is probably the most passionate and his ground operation is well-organized and strong. He's also been making a lot of noise with a great TV ad campaign that appeals to young voters and skeptics of Newt/Romney. Dr. No may be one of the oldest guys to ever run, but the kids love him. He shouldn't be underestimated in Iowa.
Then there's Rick Perry. Most everyone in the media has written him off because of his gaffes and space-outs. Sure, that dopey behavior puts off the elites and freaks out a lot of regular folks who still watch the news. But in Iowa, and especially South Carolina, those aren't exactly the voters Rick Perry is gunning for. Unlike Romney and Gingrich, his primary focus from now until Jan. 3 will be winning over the Hawkeye state's Christian conservatives. They are legion. If they decide they can't trust Romney and that Gingrich is too foul, Perry seems far more likely to be their candidate. And if he takes Iowa, he probably takes SC, too.
Then there's Jon Huntsman and New Hampshire. He's put all of his eggs into that crazy, independent basket. Who can really know which way Granite state voters will go? Not even the Magic 8-Ball has an answer for that one.
I know this much, if Paul or Perry pulls an upset in Iowa and Huntsman comes in first or second in New Hampshire, it will throw the race and entire media narrative into a realm of political weirdness we have not witnessed in decades. If political junkies thought the race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in 2008 was epic, they could be in for yet another nominating spectacle for the ages if the battle goes down to a brokered convention in Tampa.
I'm tempted to bet 10 Large Perry winds up with the nomination.