Iowa wild card: Christian conservatives

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With two weeks to go until the Jan. 3 Iowa Caucus, the great unknown in that race continues to be who evangelical Republicans will get behind. According to Boston.com, the majority of them are still undecided and torn between Ron Paul (TX), Michele Bachmann (MN) and Rick Santorum (PA).
The article did a good job of barely mentioning Rick Perry (TX), who's spending these final weeks before the Caucus on a bus tour of the state, focusing on these very voters. The media has completely written him off. That may be a mistake. If he gets in there and starts connecting with values voters on the ground, as a fellow Christian and governor, he may appeal to them far more than Paul, Bachmann and Santorum combined. He speaks their language on faith, foreign policy and limited government, has a record of executive leadership and honestly, he's not a woman (with this crowd, it does matter).
At this point every one's envisioning and girding themselves for a Paul upset in Iowa. For good reason. He's got a lock on the ground game and the most passionate supporters. At the same time, all the big guns are blazing away at Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich for epic flip-floppery and corruption, destroying voters' trust in them and cancelling each other out.
If evangelicals decide at the last minute that Paul is too off his nut on foreign policy and Bachmann and Santorum are just too weak, they could easily coalesce around the candidate that most comprehensively appeals to their vision of a leader - that male, conservative Christian, Southern governor. At this point, a win for Perry in Iowa isn't just possible, it would be the biggest upset of all.

Romney snags endorsement from the Des Moines Register

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I don't know what's more exciting, Christine "I'm not a witch" O'Donnell's endorsement of Mitt Romney or the one he just got from Iowa's largest newspaper, the Des Moines Register. The paper acknowledges it didn't endorse Romney in 2008, but that was then and this is now. Now it's all about his "sobriety, wisdom and judgement." This year it's "a different field" (read: full of pandering psychos) and he's matured as a candidate. The paper tries weakly to explain away his myriad flip-flops by claiming he's evolved politically - and besides, they all do it! In closing ranks with the establishment, they argue Newt Gingrich is an alienating, unelectable bomb thrower and Ron Paul would bring about "economic chaos and isolationism." While they may be right about Gingrich and Paul, it's still fun to watch the establishment squirm over the possibility of Dr. No taking Iowa. It would be the right-leaning version of  OWS, occupying the Iowa Caucuses. There would be no greater discombobulation. And if that happens, expect the MSM to go into collective hyperdrive to (a.) diminish the Iowa victory by claiming the Caucuses no longer matter and (b.) by going "Dean Scream" on Paul to shut down his momentum. Here's the memo to come: He can't win! He can't win! He can't win! Got it?

Newt/Romney a lock on Iowa? Don't bet on it

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As we get closer to the Iowa Caucuses Jan. 3, most folks are laser-focused on the slug fest that is Newt/Romney. I blame the political chatteratti for that. They conveniently forget there are a few other contenders in the race. The race could go down as predicted by most polls, showing Mitt Romney's support crashing and Newt Gingrich's surging from Iowa to Florida. But then again, being the strange and volatile season it is, other weirdness could ensue.
Take Ron Paul. His rising poll numbers in Iowa now have him in second place. His base is probably the most passionate and his ground operation is well-organized and strong. He's also been making a lot of noise with a great TV ad campaign that appeals to young voters and skeptics of Newt/Romney. Dr. No may be one of the oldest guys to ever run, but the kids love him. He shouldn't be underestimated in Iowa.
Then there's Rick Perry. Most everyone in the media has written him off because of his gaffes and space-outs. Sure, that dopey behavior puts off the elites and freaks out a lot of regular folks who still watch the news. But in Iowa, and especially South Carolina, those aren't exactly the voters Rick Perry is gunning for. Unlike Romney and Gingrich, his primary focus from now until Jan. 3 will be winning over the Hawkeye state's Christian conservatives. They are legion. If they decide they can't trust Romney and that Gingrich is too foul, Perry seems far more likely to be their candidate. And if he takes Iowa, he probably takes SC, too.
Then there's Jon Huntsman and New Hampshire. He's put all of his eggs into that crazy, independent basket. Who can really know which way Granite state voters will go? Not even the Magic 8-Ball has an answer for that one.
I know this much, if Paul or Perry pulls an upset in Iowa and Huntsman comes in first or second in New Hampshire, it will throw the race and entire media narrative into a realm of political weirdness we have not witnessed in decades. If political junkies thought the race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in 2008 was epic, they could be in for yet another nominating spectacle for the ages if the battle goes down to a brokered convention in Tampa.
I'm tempted to bet 10 Large Perry winds up with the nomination.

ABC News-Iowa GOP debate: Will the real front-runner please stand up?

With the fur now flying between the Romney, Gingrich and Paul campaigns, tonight's ABC News,Yahoo News, WOI-TV, Des Moines Register, Iowa Republican Party debate should be very entertaining. With the Iowa Caucus just weeks away, the stakes are higher than ever.
Questions to ponder while we wait for the fun to begin... will there be an open bar? Will a desperate Mittens locate his cajones and go after Newt face-to-face for screwing up his front-runner status by reminding everyone about his voluminous record of ethics violations and personal scandals? Will Newt drop the "I'm above it" act and go medieval on Mittens by rubbing his flip-floppery in his face like a dog's nose in poo? Will they both make each other look so petty and stupid that Ron Paul actually gains his opening to win the Caucus? (He is right up there with them in the polls.) What kind of Bush-league buffoonery will Rick Perry bring tonight? Will Jon Huntsman's rich daddy buy him some air time? And, will anyone notice those other two clowns still hanging around?
Seriously, I can only hope moderators Diane Sawyer and George Stephanopoulos give Gingrich a good grilling over his recent comments regarding his disdain for child labor laws and saying that Palestinians are an invented people. I also hope she questions Mittens over why, as outgoing MA governor, he and his staff bought all those hard drives and scrubbed whatever records they could, as well as making him defend his record of ever-shifting positions. It would also be nice to hear Paul questioned over what he would do as president in his first 100 days in office, should he be nominated and beat President Barack Obama. I know, I know... it'll never happen. I'd still love to hear what Dr. No's big plan would be, just the same.
The debate is being held on the campus of Drake University in Des Moines and starts at 9 p.m. Eastern/8 p.m. Central. To watch, tune into ABC TV or watch the live-stream at ABCNews.com, Yahoo.com, MyABC5.com or DesMoinesRegister.com.