Perry: "Here we come South Carolina!!!"

Perry Tweet

After a poor fifth place showing in Tuesday's GOP Iowa caucuses and saying he'd reassess his campaign, Texas Governor Rick Perry is now saying he'll forge on to the South Carolina primary. After discussing his prospects with wife, Anita, and going for a run to "clear his head," he Tweeted: "And the next leg of the marathon is the Palmetto State...Here we come South Carolina!!!"
Surely there will be much gnashing of teeth over Perry's seeming reversal. By the time the sun came up this morning, the MSM had almost universally declared his campaign over.
Could Perry's decision to soldier on have anything to do with a private"emergency" meeting being called for next weekend in Texas? According to Politico, e-mail invitations are going out now and will be hosted by movement conservative leaders including Focus on the Family founder James Dobson, Don Wildmon, former chairman of the American Family Association and Gary Bauer, a former failed presidential candidate. Their focus will be which conservative candidate to get behind in order to stop Mitt Romney's candidacy.

FD HIDDEN DIV

The race for 2012 begins tonight

After months and months and months of GOP campaigning and debates, and a constantly changing slate of front-runners, the moment has arrived. Tonight is the Iowa Caucus, the official kick-off for the race to determine who the 2012 Republican nominee will be. I'm already worn out.
The race boils down to three factions fighting for the top spot in Iowa and the big 'mo that follows: the establishment pick (Mitt Romney), the outsider (Ron Paul) and the evangelical standard-bearer (?). As of today, it's being reported that some 40 percent of (mostly evangelical) voters are still undecided. With that big a number of undecideds, it's just about impossible to say who the top tier going into New Hampshire will be.
Conventional wisdom and polls now say former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum (Flavor #5) has a strong shot at landing in the top 3 tonight. It's possible. He's put more time and effort into winning over Iowa's electorate, especially its social conservatives than any other candidate, save Ron Paul. And Iowa is known for picking religious fundamentalists with no real shot. If Santorum doesn't come in third place, at least, he's done.
It looks like it will be a showdown between Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, with the former holding a very slight lead in the polls. However, Paul's support could be underrated because many of his supporters use cell phones and aren't polled as much as older voters with landlines.
The big question is who will evangelicals support? Will they go for Santorum, who has no money and no game beyond Iowa? Will God bestow a real live miracle on Michele Bachmann's crashing campaign and keep her in the game to New Hampshire? Or will these voters coalesce around Rick Perry (who does have the machine and money to get through to Super Tuesday)?
And then there's Newt Gingrich (Flavor #4)... no matter where he winds up in tonight's total, he won't drop out. He's got books to sell and big-money speeches to make; and being a candidate gives him a spotlight PR money can't buy. He's also still, for whatever reason, polling high in states like South Carolina and Florida. Tonight could change that, though, if he fails to crack the top 4.
I predict Paul will win the Iowa Caucus with Romney coming in second. I also predict Perry will beat expectations and come in third or fourth. With an unfriendly SC primary looming, that would be Romney's biggest nightmare.

Iowa wild card: Christian conservatives

Image from Washingtonpost.com

With two weeks to go until the Jan. 3 Iowa Caucus, the great unknown in that race continues to be who evangelical Republicans will get behind. According to Boston.com, the majority of them are still undecided and torn between Ron Paul (TX), Michele Bachmann (MN) and Rick Santorum (PA).
The article did a good job of barely mentioning Rick Perry (TX), who's spending these final weeks before the Caucus on a bus tour of the state, focusing on these very voters. The media has completely written him off. That may be a mistake. If he gets in there and starts connecting with values voters on the ground, as a fellow Christian and governor, he may appeal to them far more than Paul, Bachmann and Santorum combined. He speaks their language on faith, foreign policy and limited government, has a record of executive leadership and honestly, he's not a woman (with this crowd, it does matter).
At this point every one's envisioning and girding themselves for a Paul upset in Iowa. For good reason. He's got a lock on the ground game and the most passionate supporters. At the same time, all the big guns are blazing away at Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich for epic flip-floppery and corruption, destroying voters' trust in them and cancelling each other out.
If evangelicals decide at the last minute that Paul is too off his nut on foreign policy and Bachmann and Santorum are just too weak, they could easily coalesce around the candidate that most comprehensively appeals to their vision of a leader - that male, conservative Christian, Southern governor. At this point, a win for Perry in Iowa isn't just possible, it would be the biggest upset of all.

Romney snags endorsement from the Des Moines Register

Photo by Darren McCollester/Getty Images North America

I don't know what's more exciting, Christine "I'm not a witch" O'Donnell's endorsement of Mitt Romney or the one he just got from Iowa's largest newspaper, the Des Moines Register. The paper acknowledges it didn't endorse Romney in 2008, but that was then and this is now. Now it's all about his "sobriety, wisdom and judgement." This year it's "a different field" (read: full of pandering psychos) and he's matured as a candidate. The paper tries weakly to explain away his myriad flip-flops by claiming he's evolved politically - and besides, they all do it! In closing ranks with the establishment, they argue Newt Gingrich is an alienating, unelectable bomb thrower and Ron Paul would bring about "economic chaos and isolationism." While they may be right about Gingrich and Paul, it's still fun to watch the establishment squirm over the possibility of Dr. No taking Iowa. It would be the right-leaning version of  OWS, occupying the Iowa Caucuses. There would be no greater discombobulation. And if that happens, expect the MSM to go into collective hyperdrive to (a.) diminish the Iowa victory by claiming the Caucuses no longer matter and (b.) by going "Dean Scream" on Paul to shut down his momentum. Here's the memo to come: He can't win! He can't win! He can't win! Got it?

From the So What? dept.: SC gov. Nikki Haley endorses Romney

South Carolina governor Nikki Haley (R) has endorsed Mitt Romney for the GOP nomination. My first thought when I heard that was, really? How politically dumb can she be? I agree with this writer at TPM, who suggests the endorsement won't do much for Romney in the Palmetto primary. Haley isn't exactly popular down yonder these days, even among Republicans. And SC conservatives just do not like or trust Romney, so it's a mistake to think her endorsement will help him. Maybe Haley's angling for the VP spot with Romney?

Is Mittens the Hillary Clinton of 2012?

From an interview with Ben Smith and Maggie Haberman at Politico:

"When the (Des Moines register poll) came out showing Romney in third I actually had a shot of PTSD,” said one former Clinton adviser. “Four years ago, (the) biggest factor was opposition to Bush - and Obama skillfully managed to paint Hillary as timid on Bush … Now (the) biggest thing is hatred of Obama, and Gingrich … makes Romney seem timid. Or he seems it himself. So that’s why Romney is in the box of being third in Iowa. And counting on a New Hampshire firewall that is shrinking away.”

Newt/Romney a lock on Iowa? Don't bet on it

Image: http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2011/09/08/am-the-republican-debate-social-security-and-minimum-wage/

As we get closer to the Iowa Caucuses Jan. 3, most folks are laser-focused on the slug fest that is Newt/Romney. I blame the political chatteratti for that. They conveniently forget there are a few other contenders in the race. The race could go down as predicted by most polls, showing Mitt Romney's support crashing and Newt Gingrich's surging from Iowa to Florida. But then again, being the strange and volatile season it is, other weirdness could ensue.
Take Ron Paul. His rising poll numbers in Iowa now have him in second place. His base is probably the most passionate and his ground operation is well-organized and strong. He's also been making a lot of noise with a great TV ad campaign that appeals to young voters and skeptics of Newt/Romney. Dr. No may be one of the oldest guys to ever run, but the kids love him. He shouldn't be underestimated in Iowa.
Then there's Rick Perry. Most everyone in the media has written him off because of his gaffes and space-outs. Sure, that dopey behavior puts off the elites and freaks out a lot of regular folks who still watch the news. But in Iowa, and especially South Carolina, those aren't exactly the voters Rick Perry is gunning for. Unlike Romney and Gingrich, his primary focus from now until Jan. 3 will be winning over the Hawkeye state's Christian conservatives. They are legion. If they decide they can't trust Romney and that Gingrich is too foul, Perry seems far more likely to be their candidate. And if he takes Iowa, he probably takes SC, too.
Then there's Jon Huntsman and New Hampshire. He's put all of his eggs into that crazy, independent basket. Who can really know which way Granite state voters will go? Not even the Magic 8-Ball has an answer for that one.
I know this much, if Paul or Perry pulls an upset in Iowa and Huntsman comes in first or second in New Hampshire, it will throw the race and entire media narrative into a realm of political weirdness we have not witnessed in decades. If political junkies thought the race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in 2008 was epic, they could be in for yet another nominating spectacle for the ages if the battle goes down to a brokered convention in Tampa.
I'm tempted to bet 10 Large Perry winds up with the nomination.

Romney jabs at Gingrich, gets punched right back

Earlier today, a desperate Mitt Romney challenged Newt Gingrich to return the money he received from consulting with Fannie and Freddie.
Newt's reply: "I would just say: if Governor Romney would like to give back all the money he's earned from bankrupting companies and laying off employees over his years at Bain, then I would be glad to then listen to him. And I will bet you $10, not $10,000, that he won't take the offer."
Oh, snap!

Andrew Sullivan sums up tonight's debate quick-like

"10.54 pm. Tapper is playing up the $10,000 Romney bet - and I suspect he's right to. It leapt out at me, along with the "Newt Romney" line from Bachmann. Other than that, Newt wins; Romney loses; Paul rises. Have yourself a shot. I sure will."
A few thoughts of my own...
I predict Romney's glib $10k bet offer to Perry will be the equivalent of George H.W. Bush's epic space-out on the price of a gallon of milk. We all remember how that turned out. Just to drive that point home, Jon Huntsman, who was MIA tonight, bought www.10KBet.com. Can't wait to see what they do with that.
Romney went into this race desperately needing to neutralize Newt Gingrich's new front runner status. Instead, he received a knock-out blow from Gingrich at the very beginning when the former House Speaker reminded voters that Romney would've been a career politician if only he could've gotten elected.
Ron Paul did well and got much applause, but as usual, the talking heads refused to acknowledge it. The political press is mind-numbingly predictable. He's polling in second place right now in Iowa. I'd pay good money to see the look on the faces of a dumbstruck intelligentsia if Dr. No actually pulls a Huckabee and wins the Iowa Caucus.
Rick Perry did better than expected tonight. He gave good, heartfelt answers to two important questions re: character (if you lie to your spouse, who won't you lie to?) and where he came from (modest beginnings). As doofy as he is, I've been saying that it's foolish to count him out just yet. With an upcoming Iowa bus tour, he could still win the coveted Christian vote. As for Bachmann and Santorum, their role tonight was useful, but I doubt it'll do them any good.

ABC News-Iowa GOP debate: Will the real front-runner please stand up?

With the fur now flying between the Romney, Gingrich and Paul campaigns, tonight's ABC News,Yahoo News, WOI-TV, Des Moines Register, Iowa Republican Party debate should be very entertaining. With the Iowa Caucus just weeks away, the stakes are higher than ever.
Questions to ponder while we wait for the fun to begin... will there be an open bar? Will a desperate Mittens locate his cajones and go after Newt face-to-face for screwing up his front-runner status by reminding everyone about his voluminous record of ethics violations and personal scandals? Will Newt drop the "I'm above it" act and go medieval on Mittens by rubbing his flip-floppery in his face like a dog's nose in poo? Will they both make each other look so petty and stupid that Ron Paul actually gains his opening to win the Caucus? (He is right up there with them in the polls.) What kind of Bush-league buffoonery will Rick Perry bring tonight? Will Jon Huntsman's rich daddy buy him some air time? And, will anyone notice those other two clowns still hanging around?
Seriously, I can only hope moderators Diane Sawyer and George Stephanopoulos give Gingrich a good grilling over his recent comments regarding his disdain for child labor laws and saying that Palestinians are an invented people. I also hope she questions Mittens over why, as outgoing MA governor, he and his staff bought all those hard drives and scrubbed whatever records they could, as well as making him defend his record of ever-shifting positions. It would also be nice to hear Paul questioned over what he would do as president in his first 100 days in office, should he be nominated and beat President Barack Obama. I know, I know... it'll never happen. I'd still love to hear what Dr. No's big plan would be, just the same.
The debate is being held on the campus of Drake University in Des Moines and starts at 9 p.m. Eastern/8 p.m. Central. To watch, tune into ABC TV or watch the live-stream at ABCNews.com, Yahoo.com, MyABC5.com or DesMoinesRegister.com.

What's with the secrecy, Mittens?



Photo: Corbis

This just in, "Just before Mitt Romney left the Massachusetts governor’s office and first ran for president, 11 of his top aides purchased their state-issued computer hard drives, and the Romney administration’s e-mails were all wiped from a server, according to interviews and records obtained by the Globe." Sounds kinda hinky. It'll be interesting to see if this story grows legs.



What was Romney saying, again?



New Hampshire Union Leader, June 3, 2011

It's happening. Sarah Palin, who hasn't even declared a candidacy yet, is already stealing all of the media oxygen from those who have or soon will. Since last week, everyone's forgotten about that guy, "T-Paw" and she completely overshadowed Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann's announcement about a "mysterious" June announcement to come from Iowa (What kind of strategery is that, Bachmann?). This week, the Mama Grizzly mauled Mitt Romney's big kick-off speech in New Hampshire. No winning the news cycle for you, Mr. Romneycare! It must really chap Mittens' ass that some pretend politician/reality star got the lion's share of attention today from "the Granite State's" leading paper. Guess we know who they don't like!



This just happened in New Hampshire

Poor Mittens! Sarah "Rolling Thunder" Palin had to go ruin his big day. Her Magical Mystery Tour just happened to show up right down the road from the farm he was holding his announcement at. As expected, the media left him in the dust to go chasing after her. To make it worse, she and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, also speaking in New Hampshire yesterday, both took pot shots at the so-called GOP front-runner. Way to honor Reagan's 11th Commandment, guys!

Is Palin pulling a Trump?

The Magic 8-Ball is clear on one thing: Sarah Palin will never be president. One doesn’t need magic to divine this truth, however. Poll after poll shows she is increasingly radioactive across large swaths of the voting public – as in pre-2008 Hillary Clinton unpopular. And yet, she flirts. So, what’s her game – will she run for the 2012 GOP nomination, or is she pulling a Trump to stay in the headlines?

With former governor Mike Huckabee (leader of the 2012 pack) out of the race, Palin may see this as her moment. Social conservatives, who gravitated to Huckabee, would be Palin’s for the picking. Also vying for those voters will be Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and Rick “Man on Dog” Santorum. No worries for Palin on that score. She’s the big dawg and they are but fleas.

As for Mitt Romney (struggling to be seen as the field’s frontrunner), a Palin candidacy would be his worst nightmare. Her star power and ability to raise tons of cash is competition he absolutely does not need. The combination of name recognition and fundraising prowess was the one thing he had going for him.

Poor Mittens. He’s a far weaker candidate than the Beltway press seems to grasp. He’s the king of flip-floppery, has the charisma of a cement block and is viewed with great suspicion by the party’s social conservatives. Palin could be the anti-Romney they’ve been looking for.

The rest of the Republican field will get very little attention if Palin runs. This must drive that other boring governor, Tim Pawlenty nuts. His campaign is already going nowhere at the speed of light. With Palin in the race, he just becomes another interchangeable white guy.

I believe Sarah Palin will run for the 2012 Republican nomination. Why wouldn’t she? She has everything to gain by it no matter the outcome. There’s no way she (queen of the mammoth ego) would turn away from the possibility of being the first female to run for president on the Republican ticket. There’s also no way she’ll turn down all that free publicity (and wardrobe!); not to mention all the cash to be made down the road.

For Palin it’s not about actually winning or serving a greater good. It’s about keeping herself in the spotlight and feeding her greed. Look how she bailed on Alaska after only two and a half years into her first term to pursue the almighty dollar (book, TV deals). Her campaign slogan should be “Show Me the Money!”

With such a pitiful GOP field, I can see her winning her party’s nomination and then losing badly to President Obama in the general election. It’s all good, though. To Palin, losing a presidential race is actually winning!