The race for 2012 begins tonight

After months and months and months of GOP campaigning and debates, and a constantly changing slate of front-runners, the moment has arrived. Tonight is the Iowa Caucus, the official kick-off for the race to determine who the 2012 Republican nominee will be. I'm already worn out.
The race boils down to three factions fighting for the top spot in Iowa and the big 'mo that follows: the establishment pick (Mitt Romney), the outsider (Ron Paul) and the evangelical standard-bearer (?). As of today, it's being reported that some 40 percent of (mostly evangelical) voters are still undecided. With that big a number of undecideds, it's just about impossible to say who the top tier going into New Hampshire will be.
Conventional wisdom and polls now say former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum (Flavor #5) has a strong shot at landing in the top 3 tonight. It's possible. He's put more time and effort into winning over Iowa's electorate, especially its social conservatives than any other candidate, save Ron Paul. And Iowa is known for picking religious fundamentalists with no real shot. If Santorum doesn't come in third place, at least, he's done.
It looks like it will be a showdown between Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, with the former holding a very slight lead in the polls. However, Paul's support could be underrated because many of his supporters use cell phones and aren't polled as much as older voters with landlines.
The big question is who will evangelicals support? Will they go for Santorum, who has no money and no game beyond Iowa? Will God bestow a real live miracle on Michele Bachmann's crashing campaign and keep her in the game to New Hampshire? Or will these voters coalesce around Rick Perry (who does have the machine and money to get through to Super Tuesday)?
And then there's Newt Gingrich (Flavor #4)... no matter where he winds up in tonight's total, he won't drop out. He's got books to sell and big-money speeches to make; and being a candidate gives him a spotlight PR money can't buy. He's also still, for whatever reason, polling high in states like South Carolina and Florida. Tonight could change that, though, if he fails to crack the top 4.
I predict Paul will win the Iowa Caucus with Romney coming in second. I also predict Perry will beat expectations and come in third or fourth. With an unfriendly SC primary looming, that would be Romney's biggest nightmare.

Iowa wild card: Christian conservatives

Image from Washingtonpost.com

With two weeks to go until the Jan. 3 Iowa Caucus, the great unknown in that race continues to be who evangelical Republicans will get behind. According to Boston.com, the majority of them are still undecided and torn between Ron Paul (TX), Michele Bachmann (MN) and Rick Santorum (PA).
The article did a good job of barely mentioning Rick Perry (TX), who's spending these final weeks before the Caucus on a bus tour of the state, focusing on these very voters. The media has completely written him off. That may be a mistake. If he gets in there and starts connecting with values voters on the ground, as a fellow Christian and governor, he may appeal to them far more than Paul, Bachmann and Santorum combined. He speaks their language on faith, foreign policy and limited government, has a record of executive leadership and honestly, he's not a woman (with this crowd, it does matter).
At this point every one's envisioning and girding themselves for a Paul upset in Iowa. For good reason. He's got a lock on the ground game and the most passionate supporters. At the same time, all the big guns are blazing away at Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich for epic flip-floppery and corruption, destroying voters' trust in them and cancelling each other out.
If evangelicals decide at the last minute that Paul is too off his nut on foreign policy and Bachmann and Santorum are just too weak, they could easily coalesce around the candidate that most comprehensively appeals to their vision of a leader - that male, conservative Christian, Southern governor. At this point, a win for Perry in Iowa isn't just possible, it would be the biggest upset of all.

Andrew Sullivan sums up tonight's debate quick-like

"10.54 pm. Tapper is playing up the $10,000 Romney bet - and I suspect he's right to. It leapt out at me, along with the "Newt Romney" line from Bachmann. Other than that, Newt wins; Romney loses; Paul rises. Have yourself a shot. I sure will."
A few thoughts of my own...
I predict Romney's glib $10k bet offer to Perry will be the equivalent of George H.W. Bush's epic space-out on the price of a gallon of milk. We all remember how that turned out. Just to drive that point home, Jon Huntsman, who was MIA tonight, bought www.10KBet.com. Can't wait to see what they do with that.
Romney went into this race desperately needing to neutralize Newt Gingrich's new front runner status. Instead, he received a knock-out blow from Gingrich at the very beginning when the former House Speaker reminded voters that Romney would've been a career politician if only he could've gotten elected.
Ron Paul did well and got much applause, but as usual, the talking heads refused to acknowledge it. The political press is mind-numbingly predictable. He's polling in second place right now in Iowa. I'd pay good money to see the look on the faces of a dumbstruck intelligentsia if Dr. No actually pulls a Huckabee and wins the Iowa Caucus.
Rick Perry did better than expected tonight. He gave good, heartfelt answers to two important questions re: character (if you lie to your spouse, who won't you lie to?) and where he came from (modest beginnings). As doofy as he is, I've been saying that it's foolish to count him out just yet. With an upcoming Iowa bus tour, he could still win the coveted Christian vote. As for Bachmann and Santorum, their role tonight was useful, but I doubt it'll do them any good.

ABC News-Iowa GOP debate: Will the real front-runner please stand up?

With the fur now flying between the Romney, Gingrich and Paul campaigns, tonight's ABC News,Yahoo News, WOI-TV, Des Moines Register, Iowa Republican Party debate should be very entertaining. With the Iowa Caucus just weeks away, the stakes are higher than ever.
Questions to ponder while we wait for the fun to begin... will there be an open bar? Will a desperate Mittens locate his cajones and go after Newt face-to-face for screwing up his front-runner status by reminding everyone about his voluminous record of ethics violations and personal scandals? Will Newt drop the "I'm above it" act and go medieval on Mittens by rubbing his flip-floppery in his face like a dog's nose in poo? Will they both make each other look so petty and stupid that Ron Paul actually gains his opening to win the Caucus? (He is right up there with them in the polls.) What kind of Bush-league buffoonery will Rick Perry bring tonight? Will Jon Huntsman's rich daddy buy him some air time? And, will anyone notice those other two clowns still hanging around?
Seriously, I can only hope moderators Diane Sawyer and George Stephanopoulos give Gingrich a good grilling over his recent comments regarding his disdain for child labor laws and saying that Palestinians are an invented people. I also hope she questions Mittens over why, as outgoing MA governor, he and his staff bought all those hard drives and scrubbed whatever records they could, as well as making him defend his record of ever-shifting positions. It would also be nice to hear Paul questioned over what he would do as president in his first 100 days in office, should he be nominated and beat President Barack Obama. I know, I know... it'll never happen. I'd still love to hear what Dr. No's big plan would be, just the same.
The debate is being held on the campus of Drake University in Des Moines and starts at 9 p.m. Eastern/8 p.m. Central. To watch, tune into ABC TV or watch the live-stream at ABCNews.com, Yahoo.com, MyABC5.com or DesMoinesRegister.com.

Word association game - GOP primary edition



Photo: Aikenstandard.com

Instead of wasting time writing a detailed analysis of where today's GOP contenders stand, I've opted to go the simple route. A variation on word association. Why not? Since this is the most intellectually-challenged group of presidential nominees I've ever seen in my life, it's best to keep it simple. So here we go!

Mitt Romney: Can't buy me love
Newt Gingrich: Icarus
Rick Perry: Second coming of Dubya
Michele Bachmann: Delusional
Herman Cain: Not ready for prime time
Jon Huntsman: Better luck next time
Ron Paul: Still no chance
Rick Santorum: Yah right!
Buddy Roemer: Error message
Gary Johnson: File not found



Who really chooses our presidential candidates?



Image: Adam

Former Bush political strategist Matthew Dowd brings up a question many of us have been asking for a long time - why are certain qualified presidential candidates excluded from the debates [former Republican governors Buddy Roemer (LA) and Gary Johnson (NM)] and given far less time in them when they (Ron Paul) clearly have just as much of a shot or better than some of those who are there? Establishment parrots always say Ron Paul doesn't have a shot at the nomination. How would they know? They've never given voters a chance to make that decision. Paul's poll numbers have been high and he has a larger following than Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Herman Cain and Jon Huntsman combined. His fundraising ability also leaves theirs (collectively) in the dust.
The only sensible answer is that some candidates are acceptable to the establishment and some are not. And big media does its best to serve those interests. So, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. If the system wasn't rigged in this way, Paul would get as much air time in debates as Mitt Romney, Roemer and Johnson would be included in the debates and it would be left up to the voters to decide who's viable and who isn't.
The way it is, it's no wonder so many people don't trust big media. Why should they? It can't even come up with a plausible excuse as to why it ignores candidates who might actually just steal the show. When it comes to experience in governing, independence and common sense, Paul, Roemer and Johnson are all head and shoulders above the current crop of candidates (Huntsman excluded). But then, that's probably what makes them so unacceptable to the powers-that-be.

Image source

Mitt Romney: the Bob Dole of 2012?



Canadian Press Images

Reading Steve Kornacki's piece "The GOP and electoral suicide" at Salon.com I got to thinking, the race for the 2012 Republican nomination is the strangest, most fluid nominating contest I've ever followed (going back to the early '90's). Analytical skill and instinct be damned, there is just no predicting who will win it. Or is there?
Rachel Maddow (one of the most brilliant minds in politics & media today), predicts with certainty Mitt Romney will take it. She's the one with the doctorate and a staff of researchers, so maybe she's right; but I'm not convinced. She may be failing to grasp the depth and intensity of GOPers distrust and dislike of Romney.
Once the good 'ol boy party poo bahs decide to get behind one candidate (which I believe will be Rick Perry), the pretenders (Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain, Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann) will fade and the race will end somewhere between South Carolina and Florida. It's worth noting that in 2008 Romney couldn't buy the race. He tried mightily but got shellacked in Iowa by cash-strapped insurgent Gov. Mike Huckabee. Talk about embarrassing. Then he got beat by a weak John McCain in New Hampshire and SC (where he didn't have a prayer).
In Romney I see Groundhog Day. Why would voters be any more inclined to support him now than they did in 2008? His elitism and Olympic-level flip-floppery is even more evident now than it was then. If there's one thing voters from across the political spectrum agree on, it's having a general disgust for politicians with no moral core. Romney's campaign slogan might as well be I'll Tell You Whatever You Want to Hear!
If the GOP establishment does get behind Romney, he will most likely go down in history as the Bob Dole of 2012 (a mere sacrificial lamb). The meaning? They'll be done with him once and for all; and are already focusing on real presidential aspirants for 2016.
But like I said before, who knows. This race and political climate is unlike any other in modern times. If Maddow winds up being right and Romney becomes the GOP nominee, I will bow down before her brilliance and courage in making this early call. If my instinct is right and Perry wins his party's backing, she should hire me.

Rick Santorum wants to be your culture warrior-in-chief

AP photo

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum was thrown out of office in 2006 for being an ignorant douche. Apparently he hasn't learned anything in the interim, well, except for the fact that he's got a serious Google problem. That alone would make most of us run like hell from the media. But not this guy! He misses the spotlight so much he's running for the 2012 GOP nomination. Did you know that? If you said no, it's okay. You're not alone. The few people who do know it couldn't care less.

The day after GOP honcho Haley Barbour spoke on the need to get past purity tests at the Faith & Freedom Coalition conference in Washington, Santorum showed up to explain the opposite. He was blabbing on about taking bullets for Jesus or something. Yada yada yada.
The Magic 8-Ball has some advice for Santorum. You better super glue your rhetorical bullet-proof vest to your body. When the primary season gets into full swing, reminders (bullets?) of your inauspicious past are gonna be sprayed at you, fully-automatic, from all sides. If your "campaign" makes it past Iowa, it'll be a true miracle. We, here at the Cafe, won't be holding our breath, though.

Is Palin pulling a Trump?

The Magic 8-Ball is clear on one thing: Sarah Palin will never be president. One doesn’t need magic to divine this truth, however. Poll after poll shows she is increasingly radioactive across large swaths of the voting public – as in pre-2008 Hillary Clinton unpopular. And yet, she flirts. So, what’s her game – will she run for the 2012 GOP nomination, or is she pulling a Trump to stay in the headlines?

With former governor Mike Huckabee (leader of the 2012 pack) out of the race, Palin may see this as her moment. Social conservatives, who gravitated to Huckabee, would be Palin’s for the picking. Also vying for those voters will be Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and Rick “Man on Dog” Santorum. No worries for Palin on that score. She’s the big dawg and they are but fleas.

As for Mitt Romney (struggling to be seen as the field’s frontrunner), a Palin candidacy would be his worst nightmare. Her star power and ability to raise tons of cash is competition he absolutely does not need. The combination of name recognition and fundraising prowess was the one thing he had going for him.

Poor Mittens. He’s a far weaker candidate than the Beltway press seems to grasp. He’s the king of flip-floppery, has the charisma of a cement block and is viewed with great suspicion by the party’s social conservatives. Palin could be the anti-Romney they’ve been looking for.

The rest of the Republican field will get very little attention if Palin runs. This must drive that other boring governor, Tim Pawlenty nuts. His campaign is already going nowhere at the speed of light. With Palin in the race, he just becomes another interchangeable white guy.

I believe Sarah Palin will run for the 2012 Republican nomination. Why wouldn’t she? She has everything to gain by it no matter the outcome. There’s no way she (queen of the mammoth ego) would turn away from the possibility of being the first female to run for president on the Republican ticket. There’s also no way she’ll turn down all that free publicity (and wardrobe!); not to mention all the cash to be made down the road.

For Palin it’s not about actually winning or serving a greater good. It’s about keeping herself in the spotlight and feeding her greed. Look how she bailed on Alaska after only two and a half years into her first term to pursue the almighty dollar (book, TV deals). Her campaign slogan should be “Show Me the Money!”

With such a pitiful GOP field, I can see her winning her party’s nomination and then losing badly to President Obama in the general election. It’s all good, though. To Palin, losing a presidential race is actually winning!

Herman Cain bombs on Fox News Sunday

After his first major television interview Sunday, Herman Cain, former Godfather's Pizza CEO and Republican presidential aspirant joined Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum in the Not-Ready-For-Prime-Time Club.
Cain appeared on Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace and stumbled when the discussion turned to Israel. When asked where he stood on the right of return, Cain gave a Palinesque pause and answer betraying his lack of knowledge on the issue. Beyond the Israeli/Palestinian issue, he also confessed to not knowing what to do about Afghanistan.
Cain quickly put out a video walking back the statements he made on FNS.
It's hard to see the GOP establishment getting behind such a novice.

(Photo: AP)