Mother Jones: 13 reasons Newt will not be the GOP nominee

In a recent column, conservative big-thought guy George Will described Newt Gingrich as unstable as water. That quote he plucked from Genesis nails it. Unfortunately for the rest of the Republican field (most notably Mittens), GOP primary voters haven't gotten the memo. In a recent article, Mother Jones gives readers a list of 13 reasons Gingrich will never be the GOP nominee. The list is devastating; but the jury's out on whether it will matter to Republican voters this go 'round. The harder the conservative intelligentsia goes after the former House Speaker, the higher his poll numbers rise. It's truly baffling.
As mercurial as this nominating contest has been, there's just no divining who will win the nomination. However, the Magic 8-Ball does say there's no way Gingrich, an epically flawed candidate can beat President Barack Obama in the general election.

Word association game - GOP primary edition



Photo: Aikenstandard.com

Instead of wasting time writing a detailed analysis of where today's GOP contenders stand, I've opted to go the simple route. A variation on word association. Why not? Since this is the most intellectually-challenged group of presidential nominees I've ever seen in my life, it's best to keep it simple. So here we go!

Mitt Romney: Can't buy me love
Newt Gingrich: Icarus
Rick Perry: Second coming of Dubya
Michele Bachmann: Delusional
Herman Cain: Not ready for prime time
Jon Huntsman: Better luck next time
Ron Paul: Still no chance
Rick Santorum: Yah right!
Buddy Roemer: Error message
Gary Johnson: File not found



Who really chooses our presidential candidates?



Image: Adam

Former Bush political strategist Matthew Dowd brings up a question many of us have been asking for a long time - why are certain qualified presidential candidates excluded from the debates [former Republican governors Buddy Roemer (LA) and Gary Johnson (NM)] and given far less time in them when they (Ron Paul) clearly have just as much of a shot or better than some of those who are there? Establishment parrots always say Ron Paul doesn't have a shot at the nomination. How would they know? They've never given voters a chance to make that decision. Paul's poll numbers have been high and he has a larger following than Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Herman Cain and Jon Huntsman combined. His fundraising ability also leaves theirs (collectively) in the dust.
The only sensible answer is that some candidates are acceptable to the establishment and some are not. And big media does its best to serve those interests. So, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. If the system wasn't rigged in this way, Paul would get as much air time in debates as Mitt Romney, Roemer and Johnson would be included in the debates and it would be left up to the voters to decide who's viable and who isn't.
The way it is, it's no wonder so many people don't trust big media. Why should they? It can't even come up with a plausible excuse as to why it ignores candidates who might actually just steal the show. When it comes to experience in governing, independence and common sense, Paul, Roemer and Johnson are all head and shoulders above the current crop of candidates (Huntsman excluded). But then, that's probably what makes them so unacceptable to the powers-that-be.

Image source

Mitt Romney: the Bob Dole of 2012?



Canadian Press Images

Reading Steve Kornacki's piece "The GOP and electoral suicide" at Salon.com I got to thinking, the race for the 2012 Republican nomination is the strangest, most fluid nominating contest I've ever followed (going back to the early '90's). Analytical skill and instinct be damned, there is just no predicting who will win it. Or is there?
Rachel Maddow (one of the most brilliant minds in politics & media today), predicts with certainty Mitt Romney will take it. She's the one with the doctorate and a staff of researchers, so maybe she's right; but I'm not convinced. She may be failing to grasp the depth and intensity of GOPers distrust and dislike of Romney.
Once the good 'ol boy party poo bahs decide to get behind one candidate (which I believe will be Rick Perry), the pretenders (Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain, Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann) will fade and the race will end somewhere between South Carolina and Florida. It's worth noting that in 2008 Romney couldn't buy the race. He tried mightily but got shellacked in Iowa by cash-strapped insurgent Gov. Mike Huckabee. Talk about embarrassing. Then he got beat by a weak John McCain in New Hampshire and SC (where he didn't have a prayer).
In Romney I see Groundhog Day. Why would voters be any more inclined to support him now than they did in 2008? His elitism and Olympic-level flip-floppery is even more evident now than it was then. If there's one thing voters from across the political spectrum agree on, it's having a general disgust for politicians with no moral core. Romney's campaign slogan might as well be I'll Tell You Whatever You Want to Hear!
If the GOP establishment does get behind Romney, he will most likely go down in history as the Bob Dole of 2012 (a mere sacrificial lamb). The meaning? They'll be done with him once and for all; and are already focusing on real presidential aspirants for 2016.
But like I said before, who knows. This race and political climate is unlike any other in modern times. If Maddow winds up being right and Romney becomes the GOP nominee, I will bow down before her brilliance and courage in making this early call. If my instinct is right and Perry wins his party's backing, she should hire me.

GOP to Newt: Suck it!

Perennial presidential wanna-be Newt Gingrich finally had a good (meaning gaffe-free) week. Unfortunately for him, it was followed by a new survey released by Public Policy Polling revealing what many of us already know: He is very unpopular even within his own party.
The poll shows 38 percent support for Gingrich among Republicans; while 45 percent view him unfavorably. That's no small number. (Among Democrats, he is viewed unfavorable by 80 percent.) Even Sarah Palin, who fled office after only two and a half years into her governorship, scored higher than the former Speaker of the House with 55-37, respectively.
The combination of past and recent bad press and negative polling numbers beg the question, what makes Gingrich think he has any chance of winning the Republican nomination - sheer ego the size of Mt. Rushmore?
I'm no expert in statistics, but the Magic 8-Ball never lies. Gingrich stands about the same chance of winning the nomination as he does in winning the gazillion dollar lottery. One would have to be a complete fool to run on those odds.

Desperation city

According to a CNN/Research survey of Republican voters, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani edges out former governors Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin for the top spot in a hypothetical 2012 matchup. Giuliani received 16 percent support to Romney's 15 percent and Palin's 13 percent.

AP Photo

Of course, this is but one survey. But the results are head scratching. How so? Let's jump into the Wayback Machine and return to the run-up to the 2008 GOP primaries. Giuliani, still milking his glorious 9-11 wave of  popularity for what it was worth enjoyed some of the highest poll numbers of the pack, thanks to the breathless Beltway press hyping him incessantly. According to the Chatteratti, his expertise in national security made him the candidate to beat.
Giuliani's campaign got off to a rocky start. There were many questions about his sordid personal life and his current wife's past. He also failed miserably to connect with voters on the trail. This must've been all too apparent to his staff because they proceeded to run the most bizarre primary strategy known to mankind: blow off the early primary states and take it all in Florida. Yah, that turned out real well. His campaign flamed out famously before it ever began.
The point to this post is simple. There is such a horrible void in the Republican field today, voters are still thrashing around, looking for "the one." I can all but guarantee to those who took this poll and other like-minded voters, Rudy Giuliani is not going to be the next Republican nominee. Granted, there is no candidate in the current GOP crop who can claim to be the 'national security guy'. Perhaps that could give "America's Mayor" a new footing, but I highly doubt it.
The Magic 8-Ball says Giuliani would be a fool to waste his time and money on such a ridiculous quest. Here's hoping his ego doesn't get the best of him.

Tim "The Buick" Pawlenty officially enters 2012 GOP race

It's official. Former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty has declared his candidacy for the 2012 GOP nomination in a YouTube video! Unfortunately for "T-Paw," his super exciting announcement was met with a collective yawn.
On the bright side, GOP gray beards can relax knowing there is, for certain, a serious candidate to back not named Mitt Romney.
Pawlenty is already preempting fears that he cannot compete with Romney in the money race by calling his campaign a Buick, or something. Reliable... Apparently, Romney is the Mercedes of campaigners.

(Photo: Jim Mone, AP)

Bailey's Daily Brief

After a nasty week in Democratic politics, one thing is clear, for the sake of the Democratic party and its newly rallied coalition, Hillary Clinton should depart the race. If she did so now, with the same concern and class shown by Al Gore in 2000, she would become a hero to many. Minus the presidency, she could write her own ticket, politically, going forward. And with her support, Obama could begin a powerhouse campaign against John McCain. When will the party heavyweights have that conversation with her? And will she go quietly into the night?

Based on Hillary Clinton's real experience, it sounds like she'd make a much better Secretary of Health and Human Services than president.

The show's over. Will somebody please tell Hillary?

After word of the results of a Pentagon study proving there was no operational link between Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda, the Bush administration is now refusing to publicly release the report. As if they could put that genie back in its bottle. It should show up online soon. Reporters who request a copy will be given one.

Who will Republican presidential nominee John McCain choose to be his running mate? Mitt Romney has re-emerged and would be delighted to be Big Mac's wing-man. Forget about the fact that they loathe each other. I've heard George W. Bush and crew are pushing McCain to choose Romney. That doesn't surprise me. And we all know what McCain does when Bush says jump. As a Republican, if I were giving the old warhorse campaign advice, I'd tell him to choose former rival Mike Huckabee. He may be a lightweight in certain areas, but he's popular and can carry Southern and evangelical voters like McCain can't.

ABC's "Good Morning America" carried Hillary Clinton's water again Thursday delivering a hit piece on Barack Obama. Backed by a barrage of clips from fiery sermons given by Obama's pastor, Rev. Jeremiah White, the piece's only aim was to give a distorted image of Wright as some kind of wild-eyed, anti-U.S. radical and linking him and his views to Obama. It was an outright smear, and left me scratching my head. I searched the papers and Internet news sites to determine if the story was linked to some bigger happening or event. Nothing. ABC's piece came out of thin air, just about the time former Clinton finance chair Geraldine Ferrarro was being hoisted onto her petard. Shame on ABC for stooping to such degenerate and unfair coverage. It's no wonder the networks are hemorrhaging news viewers. ABC "news" in particular is now about as reliable as The National Enquirer.