Mitt Romney: the Bob Dole of 2012?



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Reading Steve Kornacki's piece "The GOP and electoral suicide" at Salon.com I got to thinking, the race for the 2012 Republican nomination is the strangest, most fluid nominating contest I've ever followed (going back to the early '90's). Analytical skill and instinct be damned, there is just no predicting who will win it. Or is there?
Rachel Maddow (one of the most brilliant minds in politics & media today), predicts with certainty Mitt Romney will take it. She's the one with the doctorate and a staff of researchers, so maybe she's right; but I'm not convinced. She may be failing to grasp the depth and intensity of GOPers distrust and dislike of Romney.
Once the good 'ol boy party poo bahs decide to get behind one candidate (which I believe will be Rick Perry), the pretenders (Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain, Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann) will fade and the race will end somewhere between South Carolina and Florida. It's worth noting that in 2008 Romney couldn't buy the race. He tried mightily but got shellacked in Iowa by cash-strapped insurgent Gov. Mike Huckabee. Talk about embarrassing. Then he got beat by a weak John McCain in New Hampshire and SC (where he didn't have a prayer).
In Romney I see Groundhog Day. Why would voters be any more inclined to support him now than they did in 2008? His elitism and Olympic-level flip-floppery is even more evident now than it was then. If there's one thing voters from across the political spectrum agree on, it's having a general disgust for politicians with no moral core. Romney's campaign slogan might as well be I'll Tell You Whatever You Want to Hear!
If the GOP establishment does get behind Romney, he will most likely go down in history as the Bob Dole of 2012 (a mere sacrificial lamb). The meaning? They'll be done with him once and for all; and are already focusing on real presidential aspirants for 2016.
But like I said before, who knows. This race and political climate is unlike any other in modern times. If Maddow winds up being right and Romney becomes the GOP nominee, I will bow down before her brilliance and courage in making this early call. If my instinct is right and Perry wins his party's backing, she should hire me.

Is Palin pulling a Trump?

The Magic 8-Ball is clear on one thing: Sarah Palin will never be president. One doesn’t need magic to divine this truth, however. Poll after poll shows she is increasingly radioactive across large swaths of the voting public – as in pre-2008 Hillary Clinton unpopular. And yet, she flirts. So, what’s her game – will she run for the 2012 GOP nomination, or is she pulling a Trump to stay in the headlines?

With former governor Mike Huckabee (leader of the 2012 pack) out of the race, Palin may see this as her moment. Social conservatives, who gravitated to Huckabee, would be Palin’s for the picking. Also vying for those voters will be Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and Rick “Man on Dog” Santorum. No worries for Palin on that score. She’s the big dawg and they are but fleas.

As for Mitt Romney (struggling to be seen as the field’s frontrunner), a Palin candidacy would be his worst nightmare. Her star power and ability to raise tons of cash is competition he absolutely does not need. The combination of name recognition and fundraising prowess was the one thing he had going for him.

Poor Mittens. He’s a far weaker candidate than the Beltway press seems to grasp. He’s the king of flip-floppery, has the charisma of a cement block and is viewed with great suspicion by the party’s social conservatives. Palin could be the anti-Romney they’ve been looking for.

The rest of the Republican field will get very little attention if Palin runs. This must drive that other boring governor, Tim Pawlenty nuts. His campaign is already going nowhere at the speed of light. With Palin in the race, he just becomes another interchangeable white guy.

I believe Sarah Palin will run for the 2012 Republican nomination. Why wouldn’t she? She has everything to gain by it no matter the outcome. There’s no way she (queen of the mammoth ego) would turn away from the possibility of being the first female to run for president on the Republican ticket. There’s also no way she’ll turn down all that free publicity (and wardrobe!); not to mention all the cash to be made down the road.

For Palin it’s not about actually winning or serving a greater good. It’s about keeping herself in the spotlight and feeding her greed. Look how she bailed on Alaska after only two and a half years into her first term to pursue the almighty dollar (book, TV deals). Her campaign slogan should be “Show Me the Money!”

With such a pitiful GOP field, I can see her winning her party’s nomination and then losing badly to President Obama in the general election. It’s all good, though. To Palin, losing a presidential race is actually winning!

Today's Menu

Keep dreaming: Marc Cooper at Huffington Post explains that even though Hillary Clinton won the Ohio, Rhode Island and Texas primaries last night, she's dreaming if she thinks she can win the Democratic nomination. It's a simple matter of delegate math. For Clinton to secure the nomination, democratically, she would have to win all remaining primaries by at least 20 points each.

Another take: Dylan Loewe, also at Huffington Post, gives his take on the unreality of a Clinton nomination. He goes so far as to call her the "new Huckabee."

Speak of the devil: Mike Huckabee finally threw in the towel last night on his bid for the Republican nomination.

Kill Bill: At The New Republic, Marty Peretz notes that since Hillary Clinton put the muzzle back on Bill, her fortunes have improved. I totally agree with that assessment. Think back to those pre-South Carolina primary days; Clinton's campaign was doing fine until Bill went rhetorical renegade in the Palmetto State. After shooting his mouth off and offending most everyone in sight, the missus got the biggest electoral shelacking of her career. And it was downhill from there. If I were her, I'd use him as sparingly as possible.

Down but not out: John Hood, chairman and president of the John Locke Foundation doesn't buy Team Obama's assertion that it's mathematically impossible for Hillary Clinton to win the nomination at this point. He may be right and points out that the "Clintons fight hard, they fight dirty, and they're used to winning."

Walking anachronism alert: Another indication that Hillary Clinton's judgement is seriously flawed is that she has Gloria Steinem campaigning for her.